¡Hola amigos!
This week we are focusing on the Mexico-US relationship, as our amigos north of the border will go to the polls next Tuesday. We will explain why a Biden presidency might be uncomfortable for Lopez Obrador and we’ll also discuss a great story about Expats in Jalisco fighting over the election - one of them has a Sex Shop with Anti-Trump merchandise!
We hope you enjoy this week’s edition and invite you to share this newsletter. If you were forwarded this, please subscribe here.
Better The Devil You Know Than The Devil You Don't (?)
CNN / Associated Press
Above: (Left) President López Obrador and (Right) President Trump at a joint press conference in the White House last summer. AMLO thanked Trump for his respect towards Mexican citizens.
What does a Biden presidency mean for Mexico? In general terms, experts expect a return to normalcy in diplomatic relations, shocker. In some aspects, a Biden presidency will resemble the Obama years. The current “Remain in Mexico” migrant policy will cease to exist - allowing asylum applicants to wait in the US while their claims are processed - and a focus on lowering American demand for drugs, as opposed to simply focusing on Mexican criminal groups, will return.
However, some say that even during a Biden presidency, Mexico will probably still be pressured to stop future migrant caravans from Central Americans, but “the tone in which it's done will be different.”
Does AMLO prefer a Biden presidency? Thinking about the insults and the tarif threats Trump has thrown at Mexico, one would think that AMLO would like a more stable counterpart. However, to a great extent, he and his Foreign Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, have managed to understand how Trump operates. AMLO has also repeatedly expressed that the current US government has respected Mexican sovereignty, highly questionable, and respected Mexicans, including Mexican-Americans, extreeemely questionable.
These claims do hold some truth, though. To a great extent, Trump “doesn’t care what happens in Mexico” aside from migration, drugs, and trade. He hasn’t paid attention to matters regarding the rule of law, human rights, democracy, attacks on freedom of the press, and (surprisingly) even foreign investment in Mexico. These are things that the local opposition frequently criticizes AMLO for - and it really bothers him, to say the least.
Biden, on the other hand, might not turn a blind eye to these matters. This is especially true regarding the energy sector, where the Democratic candidate is pushing for a stronger environmental agenda and might put pressure on other countries to become more green. This might not suit the Mexican President who is stubborn in prioritizing the growth of the country’s oil company, Pemex.
A key for a successful diplomatic relationship under Biden will also depend on what the US can offer to Mexico - it did help Mexico out with the OPEC+ deal to cut oil production and by providing ventilators. Maybe, AMLO will finally be able to get real cooperation in fighting gun smuggling from a president who is not snuggled up to the gun lobby.
🏥 Mexico passes 900,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases and 90,000 deaths
...And acknowledges that its death toll is actually closer to 140k
Through an excess mortality study, the government determined that the total death toll as of September 26 should really be 139,153 - the official count was 78,449… no wonder they decided to release this on a Sunday. As for the rest of the country, the number of cases is rising in at least 8 states with the border state of Chihuahua being the first one to report an increase in deaths. As Mexico takes 10th place globally for total cases and 4th in death toll, AMLO is adamant in his opposition to stricter lockdown measures, even calling European measures authoritarian.
As for well-known people, Mexico City’s mayor, Claudia Sheinbaum, and Yucatan governor, Mauricio Vila, have tested positive. The Guardian
Above: Share of population with a reported case in Mexico. © The New York Times
🎭 Morena finally has a new leader
As you will recall from our previous edition, the president’s party opted to select their next leader by conducting a series of polls. But after two previous polls had the frontrunners tied, a third one was able to declare Morena’s leader in the lower house, Mario Delgado, the winner. He got 58.6% over Porfirio Muñoz Lerdo’s 41.4% , who is one of the most vocal critics of AMLO, within Morena. Not only is Delgado closer to the President but also close to Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who political experts (AKA the authors of this newsletter) see as a possible presidential candidate in 2024. Likewise, this result might affect Muñoz Ledo’s ally, Mexico City’s Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum’s chances of becoming the first female president. Reuters
🌈 The Pope said it first on Mexican TV
Last week, Pope Francis made a declaration that shocked the world by endorsing same-sex civil unions; however, the Pope had previously expressed his supported the unions during a May 2019 interview with Televisa… but no one knew about it! The Mexican media company didn’t broadcast the full interview as they didn’t consider the comments newsworthy - to be fair, Pope Francis had previously supported same-sex unions them back when he was serving as the archbishop of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Associated Press
🇺🇸 US political division did not spare expats in Ajijic
Ajijic, Jalisco brings to mind lakeside views and a pleasant expat retirement community… However, the same division and utter bizarreness that the past four years has exposed in the US, is alive and well in this quaint town. Masks are now a political statement, liberals and conservatives who used to have productive discussions are avoiding each other, and all of these tensions are on public display at the expat-owned anti-Trump smoke and sex shop. Vice
🍷 Ex Mexico City embassy worker was 'experienced' predator with 22 apparent victims, prosecutors say
The ex-US government employee was arrested after reports of a “naked, hysterical woman desperately screaming for help” from the balcony of his Mexico City home. According to documents, he would meet his victims on Tinder and drug them before sexually assaulting them. Authorities are investigating 21 other cases, after a forensic analysis of his phone revealed 25 videos of naked, unconscious women. NBC
⚖️ NXIVM sex cult head Keith Raniere sentenced to 120 years in prison
Arrested in Puerto Vallarta in 2018, the cult leader had established a Mexican branch, integrated by the son of former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988 - 1994) and members of influential Mexican families, including the Junco family, owners of the Reforma newspaper. South China Morning Post
⛪ Even Mexico’s tough-luck saint has had a tough year in 2020
AMLO has been an avid supporter of the state run Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). He aims to strengthen the government's role in the energy sector and is not a big fan of having private companies in the oil sector. In order to achieve this, he has prioritised the construction of the Dos Bocas Refinery in Tabasco. By changing the law, AMLO has also halted several new clean energies project, and encourage state production. This has gone unnoticed by the Trump administration, but if Biden takes power AMLO could get some push back.
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AMLO’s quote: “It was like stupidly hitting a hornet’s nest with a stick”\
Garrotazo- blow with a club or stick.
Some context: AMLO was talking about President’s Felipe Calderon’s (2006-2012) war on drugs. Before Calderon, the military did not have an active role in fighting drug cartels. His two successors, Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018) and AMLO (2018-2024) criticized the strategy but continued with it nonetheless.